Introduction
Statistics is the collection, display, and analysis of data; it is the art of making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty. The purpose of this class is to teach you how to think critically about data, how it was collected and analyzed, and its uses in addressing interesting questions. Some of the issues we will touch on are:
Instructor
Robert Heal, Professor
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Office: 306 Animal Science, Phone: 435-760-5771; bob@math.usu.edu
Office Hours: Tuesday, Thursday 2:30pm-3:30pm
Textbook
Statistics, by Freedman, Pisani and Purves, Fourth Edition (W.W. Norton, 2007). We
will cover the entire book except Chapter 11 sections 4 and 5, Chapter 15, Chapter 22,
Chapter 24, Chapter 28 section 3, and the finite population correction factor.
Calculator
A calculator is required for this class; the CASIO fx-260SOLAR is recommended for this class and is available at the bookstore.
Recitations
All students must be registered for a recitation section. Recitations meet on Wednesdays
and Fridays. Students are expected to attend lectures and recitations. Recitations will be
devoted to working problems and answering questions.
Classroom Behavior
Please turn off your cell phones as a courtesy to the instructor and your classmates. No texting, web browsing or electronic games in class. No communication devices, music players, etc may be used in tests. No baseball caps in tests. If you use a laptop to view class material during the lecture, please sit at the back or on one side of the classroom so that you minimize any distraction for other students.
Grades
Your grade will be based on a score out of 500, made up of 100 points for quizzes, 100
points for each midterm, and 200 points for the final exam. An approximate grade
distribution is given below. Plus and minus grades are not indicated.
20% A
25% B
45% C
10% D, F
Tutoring
Free tutoring for Stat 1040 is provided by the Academic Resources Center. The schedule
is available at http://www.usu.edu/arc/tutoring/
Quizzes
There are eleven weekly quizzes, 10 points each, that you will take at the beginning of a recitation meeting. Your lowest quiz score will be dropped. You will not be allowed to take the quizzes at a different time. Only USU sponsored events, jury duty, military duty, serious illness or death in the family are acceptable excuses for rescheduling and must be supported in writing.
Midterms
There will be two midterms. Both midterms will be closed book. You need to bring a calculator to the midterms. Only USU sponsored events, jury duty, military duty, serious illness or death in the family are acceptable excuses for rescheduling and must be supported in writing.
First Midterm: Chapters 1-12 (inclusive) September 30, in class.
Second Midterm: Chapters 13-23 (inclusive) November 6, in class.
Final Exam
The final exam is closed book and comprehensive, but it will emphasize the material in chapters 26 through 29. The final exam is scheduled to be in ESLC 130 on: Thursday Dec 11 from 9:30am to 11:20pm.
If you think you may be unable to attend the final exam for any reason, you should drop this class now and take it in a semester when you will be able to attend the final. You will NOT be allowed to take the final at a different time because of family weddings, birthdays, anniversaries or because of vacation plans.
In the case of a last minute medical emergency, or a death in the family, you will be given an incomplete and required to take the common final exam the next time the class is offered.
Please note: Qualified students with disabilities may be eligible for reasonable accommodations. All accommodations are coordinated through the Disability Resource Center (DRC) in Room 101 of the University Inn, 797 2444 voice, 797 0740 TTY, or toll free at 1 800 259 2966. Please contact the DRC as early in the semester as possible. Alternate format materials (Braille, large print or digital) are available with advance notice.
Reading
Each week you have a reading assignment consisting of chapters from the book. This
material will be discussed in the lectures. Part of your reading responsibility is doing
the exercise sets at the end of each section. Your ability to do these is a measure of your
understanding of what you have read. Consequently, a suggested reading program for
each chapter is as follows:
1. Read the summary at the end of the chapter, taking careful notice of the key words
that are in italic type.
2. Read the entire chapter without looking at the exercise sets, but paying attention to
the key words.
3. Reread the chapter, this time doing the exercise sets. Whenever necessary, look back
at the chapter to find the ideas that will help you to do the exercises. Check your
answers against those in the back of the book when you have finished a problem. Do
not get in the habit of looking at the answers before you attempt the problems!
4. Reread the summary to make sure you now understand the key words.
Topics
1. Design of experiments: controls, randomization, blind and double blind, placebos. The
Salk vaccine trial, historical controls.
2. Observational studies: association and causation, confounding factors, the clofibrate
trial, sex-bias in graduate admissions.
3. Descriptive statistics: the histogram, the density scale, cross-tabulation, the average
and the SD and their relationship to the histogram, the median, the normal
approximation for data, percentiles, percentiles and the normal curve, measurement
error, outliers, bias versus chance error, plotting points and lines, the slope and the
intercept of a line.
4. Correlation: the scatter diagram, the correlation coefficient, properties of the
correlation coefficient (invariance to change of location and scale, symmetry),
ecological correlations, correlation does not imply causation, examples, the SD line.
5. Regression: the graph of averages, regression to the mean, the regression method for
individuals, the regression fallacy, there are two regression lines, the r.m.s. error,
plotting residuals, heteroscedasticity, looking at vertical strips, using the normal
curve inside vertical strips, the slope and the intercept, the method of least squares,
does regression make sense?
6. Probability: the long run argument, conditional probabilities, the multiplication rule,
independence, the Collins case, listing the ways, the addition rule the Paradox of
Chevalier de Mere, are real dice fair? The binomial formula.
7. Chance variability: What does the law of averages really say? Chance processes, the
sum of the draws, making box models, the expected value and the standard error,
using the normal curve, probability histograms, the normal approximation for
probability histograms and its scope.
8. Sampling: The Literary Digest poll, the year the polls elected Dewey, using chance in
survey work, how well do probability methods work, a close look at the Gallup poll,
telephone surveys, chance error, bias, quota samples, samples of convenience.
9. Chance errors in sampling: the standard error, the correction factor, the Gallup poll,
the accuracy of percentages, confidence intervals and their interpretation, the
accuracy of averages, the SE and expected value of an average.
10. Tests of significance: null and alternative hypotheses, test statistics and significance
levels, the role of the box model, zero-one boxes, the one-sample z tests and t tests,
the standard error for a difference, comparing two sample averages, comparing two
proportions, experiments, the chi-square tests for independence and goodness-of-fit, how
Fisher used the chi-square test to show that Mendel's data was fudged, was the result
significant? Was it important? Data snooping, the importance of the box model.
| Dr. E Robert Heal, Professor Department of Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Website Robert.Heal@usu.edu, 435-760-5771 |
