Each group will simulate three different cases: a disease with and without a
particular infectious window and with and without immunity. Decide how
infectious you want your disease to be (e.g. if disease requires direct
transferral of body fluids, perhaps infected and susceptible persons need to
overlap exactly. A `spray' infection might occur if infected and susceptible
members are within one `hex' of one another. A really infectious disease
might occur if infected members left of `trail' of sites, which infect any
susceptible population passing throught the site). You may want to play with
these initial rules a bit to get something you judge to be `interesting.' For
your first set of simulations track the course of infection given that none of
the children ever recover and can pass on the disease forever. Secondly,
simulate a case where population members are infectious for only a set number
of days, at which point they are `removed' from being infectious (and also
from being susceptible). Thirdly, do the same simulation *without*
`removing' the previously infected population (that is, place diseased
individuals back in the susceptible pool after their infection is over, as
opposed to letting them be resistant to the disease.) Perform each simulation
at least twice, so that team members can rotate through different roles.
Don't forget to collect your data!

Expand on the basic discrete logistic model to account for the factors you have added to the simulations. In your lab report you must do the following:

- Introduce the problem and describe the models you have developed.
- Describe the game rules and the circumstances they are intended to
simulate.
- Describe how parameters are determined from game rules, estimated from
data, or both.
- Test your models against the data. Are they predictive? Where are they
failing and why?

2000-07-28